Топики по Английскому — страница 2

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ever, mankind cannot regard itself as immortal, for it has become aware that its dominion over nature has limits and may even threaten its own survival. Even if nuclear war can be avoided, the threat to mankind will remain, for the Earth may one day no longer have the capacity to bear the burden of human activity. It is becoming increasingly clear that the historic form of mankind's existence that produced modern civilization, with all its seemingly boundless possibilities and comforts, has also engendered a multitude of problems that need to be addressed without delay. Solutions can, in principle, be found. The twentieth century has taught people many lessons. The emerging social, economic, political and information interconnectedness of all parts of the world community is

objectively preparing the ground for joint efforts that could avert the threat of a "creeping catastrophe" and solve global problems on a planetary level. There is, after all, no other way to succeed. In that sense, the twentieth century can be said to be the beginning of a transition to a new era; for mankind, the end of this century is a crucial fork in the road, a time to respond to the challenges of the future. Should we swim with the flow, or can we harness the available knowledge and experience, can we manage the processes of globalization and identify appropriate responses? Our initial hypothesis is that the survival and development of mankind is increasingly dependent on its ability to effect a profound spiritual reformation, to be followed by a dramatic

reordering of the social, economic and cultural patterns of its development. The Project is, in fact, an attempt to verify this hypothesis. Its goal is to search for answers, to obtain new "cautionary knowledge," and to identify a humanist alternative through the study of various scenarios of development. This work will pursue several avenues, exploriing philosophical, socio-cultural, socio-environmental, economic, political, and global security problems. A sub-project on "Russia in the Emerging Global System" will be an organic part of the proposed study. The Project will seek wide-ranging cooperation with other groups of researchers and with national and international centers that work on similar issues and are suggesting their own ideas, concepts, and

theories. The Project aims to be a contribution to the debate developing around the world on the problems of globalization and mankind's prospects in the twenty-first century. Its central assumption is the need to preserve a universal human perspective, to prove its viability in new circumstances. All sub-projects proceed from the belief in the possibility of a "democratic globalism" - a unity of the world based on cooperation, not on force and hegemony. While discussing the new Russian-Chechen war, fearing losses, feeling sorry for our soldiers, and just a little for the Chechens sometimes, we completely forget the most important thing-what can bring Russia victory in Chechnya and how it all can end. Any victory in Chechnya can be only temporary. We cannot exterminate

the Chechens or drive them out of Chechnya and replace them with Russians, as Stalin did-we are weaker now (and maybe even kinder) and the United Nations, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, NATO and governments and public opinion in the West would not allow it. After what Russia has done for the last five years, is doing now and plans to do in the near future, it will be impossible to integrate the populace of Chechnya into Russian society. It is much easier to image the extermination of the majority of the Chechen populace than fantastical democratic elections for the Russian Duma and Federation Council on Chechen territory. The most that can be achieved, after the killing of many, many Chechens and heavy losses on our side, is the establishment of long term

military occupation, which will unavoidably lead to significant deformation of Russian democratic and legal institutions and the transformation of Russia into a criminalized police state to an even great extent than today. Even at that price, it will be possible to "calm" Chechnya only for a while. Today's Chechen youths and future generations of Chechens will have no illusions that peace; compromise and agreement are possible with Russia. Probably there are already no doubts about that among those currently in power in Chechnya, or among the commanders and fighters in the Chechen armed groups, who see that the Agreement on Peace and the Principle of Peaceful Interrelation signed by the presidents of Russia and Chechnya on May 12, 1997, has today simply been