The manager as a teacher: selected aspects of stimulation of scientsfsc thinking — страница 7

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general”, the dialectic triad: thesis, antithesis and synthesis. Categories and laws of dialectics exist within a certain system in which the substance/essence of dialectics proper is expressed. Analysis of the decision-making methods without use of numerical values of probability (exemplificative of the investment projects). In practice situations are often found when it is difficult enough to estimate the value of probability of an event. In such cases methods are often times applied which do not involve using numerical values of probabilities: maximax – maximization of the maximum result of the project; maximin – maximization of the minimum result of the project; minimax – minimization of maximum losses; compromise – Gurvitz’s criterion: weighing of minimum and

maximum results of the project. For decision-making on realization of investment projects a matrix is built. Matrix columns correspond to the possible states of nature, i.e. situations which are beyond of control of the head of an enterprise. Lines of the matrix correspond to possible alternatives of realization of the investment project – strategies which may be chosen by the director. The matrix cells specify the results of each strategy for each state of nature. Example: The enterprise analyzes the investment civil-engineering design of a line for the production of new kind of product. There are two possibilities: the construction of a high power capacity line or to construct low power line. Net present value of the project depends on the demand for production, whereas the

exact volume of demand is unknown, however, it is known that there are three basic possibilities: absence of demand, average demand and great demand. The matrix cells (see table 1) show net present value of the project at a certain state of nature, provided that the enterprise will choose the appropriate strategy. The last line shows what strategy is optimum in each state of nature. The maximax decision would be to construct a high power capacity line: the maximum net present value will thus be 300 which correspond to the great demand situation. The maximum criterion reflects the position of the enterprise director – the optimist ignoring possible losses. The maximin decision, i.e. to construct a low power line: the minimum result of this strategy is the loss of 100 (which is

better than possible loss of 200 in case of construction of a high power capacity line). The maximin criterion reflects the position of the director who is in no way disposed towards taking risk and is notable for his/her extreme pessimism. This criterion is quite useful in situations where risk is especially high (for example when the existence of an enterprise depends on the results of the investment project). Threat is determined by two components: possibilities and intention of the contestant. Table 1. Example of construction of the matrix of strategy and states of nature for the investment project. Strategy State of nature : absence of demand State of nature : medium demand State of nature : great demand Construct a low power line 100 150 150 Construct a high power capacity

line 200 200 300 Optimum strategy for the given state of nature Construct a low power line Construct a high power capacity line Construct a high power capacity line To apply the minimax criterion let us construct “a matrix of regrets” (see table 2). The cells of this matrix show the extent/value of “regret”, i.e the difference between actual and the best results which could have been achieved by the enterprise at the given state of nature. “Regret” shows what is being lost by the enterprise as a result of making wrong decision. The minimax decision corresponds to the strategy, whereby the maximum regret is minimal. In our case of low power line maximum regret makes 150 (in great demand situation) and for a high power capacity line – 100 (in the absence of demand).

As 100 <150, the minimax decision would be to construct a high power capacity line. The minimax criterion is oriented not so much towards actual as possible damages or loss of profit. Table 2. Example of structure of the “matrix of regrets” for minimax criterion Strategy State of nature: absence of demand State of nature: medium demand State of nature: great demand Construct a low power line (-100) – (-100) =0 200 – 150=50 300 – 150=150 Construct a high power capacity line (-100) – (-200) =100 200 – 200=0 300 – 300=0 Optimum strategy for the given state of nature Construct a low power line Construct a high power capacity line Construct a high power capacity line Gurvitz’s criterion consists in that minimum and maximum results of each strategy are assigned