Climate change — страница 8

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emissions while simultaneously enhancing domestic productivity and competitiveness. Other programs seek to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by investing in renewable-energy and other low-carbon, energy-supply technologies, which will also provide longer-term benefits, such as increased efficiency and related cost-savings and pollution prevention. A smaller number of programs are targeted at methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases (Table 1-2). A review and update of the CCAP was initiated in 1995, involving a federal government interagency review process and a public hearing and comment period. Revisions to the CCAP (and to the calculation of the effects of its measures) were initiated in light of comments received during this process and are reflected in this document.

In addition, as called for under FCCC reporting guidelines, the projections of the effects of measures taken are extended to the year 2020, with the understanding that uncertainties become greater in more distant years. One of the principal products of the review was an assessment of the effectiveness of the CCAP programs, which were rated to be successful at reducing emissions. Currently, more than 5,000 organizations are participating in programs around the United States. The pollution-prevention benefits of these innovative programs are beginning to multiply rapidly in response to the groundwork laid and the partnerships made. In all, the programs are expected to achieve a large portion of the reductions projected in the CCAP. In fact, it is estimated that these programs will

result in energy cost savings of $10 billion annually in 2000. However, the review has also made clear the significantly reduced impact to be expected from the programs as a result of the nearly 40 percent reduction of CCAP funding by Congress from the amount requested by the President, higher-than-expected electricity demand, and lower-than-expected energy prices. In addition, before the programs' implementation, CCAP program managers could not always anticipate the impacts of projected climate change emission reductions. Information available from the first tranche of activity was considered in developing the current projections. A second product of the review was the identification of several measures that have since been added to the CCAP portfolio. The most significant of

these is the Environmental Stewardship Initiative, which greatly expands activities already included in the CCAP, and focuses on reducing the emissions of extremely potent greenhouse gases from three industrial applications--semiconductor production, electrical transmission and distribution systems, and magnesium casting. The expanded initiative is anticipated to reduce emissions by an additional 6.5 MMTCE by 2000, and 10.0 MMTCE by 2010. Other programs include improving energy efficiency in the construction of and supply of energy to commercial and industrial buildings, expanding residential markets for energy-efficient lighting products, and providing information on renewable energy to reduce barriers to the adoption of clean technologies. The analysis of individual actions is

integrated with revised forecasts of economic growth, energy prices, program funding, and regulatory developments to provide an updated comprehensive perspective on current and projected greenhouse gas emission levels. This analysis involved an updating of the baseline calculation in light of new economic assumptions regarding energy prices, economic growth, and technology improvements, among other factors. In 1993, the first U.S. submission projected year 2000 baseline emissions to be 106 MMTCE above their 1990 levels; with current program funding, emissions are now projected to exceed 1990 levels by 188 MMTCE. Two principal factors are responsible: The analysis used to develop CCAP significantly underestimated the reductions that would be needed by programs to return emissions

to 1990 levels by the year 2000. This was due to several factors, including lower-than-expected fuel prices, strong economic growth, regulatory limitations within and outside of CCAP, and improved information on emissions of some potent greenhouse gases. In addition, diminished levels of funding by Congress have affected both CCAP programs and other federal programs that reduce emissions, limiting their effectiveness. While neither the measures initiated in 1993 nor the additional actions developed since then and included in this report will be adequate to meet the emissions goal enunciated by the President, they have significantly reduced emissions below growth rates that otherwise would have occurred. Based on current funding levels, the revised action plan is expected to