An Assessment Of The Demographic Impact Of — страница 3

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native population. In 1932, Sample Counts were carried out in the Shimba Hills of the Digo District, where Sanitary Teachers were already stationed, to determine the sex and age composition of just a sample of the native population. However, overall in this period , counts of the native population were estimates and therefore inaccurate. In C. J. Martin’s opinion. ” These so-called censuses were nothing but rather elaborate forms of counts, usually based on existing information.” (Martin, 1949, p305) Until the introduction of the official census in Kenya in 1948, methods of enumeration had been based on personal observation, estimation, assumption and as a result, inaccuracy, miscalculation and inadequacy to use the data strictly numerically, qualitatively not

quantitatively. So as not to deem the information collected as useless, and as long as it is acknowledged when quoting statistics that the inaccuracies are understood, then the figures can give demographers an insight into general patterns of population growth and decline during the period. Knowledge of the economic, political and mainly social events during the Colonial Period would be beneficial alongside data on population, as they are all interlinked and these connections would make it advantageous in determining the causes and consequences of population changes. There proved to be immense problems with carrying out an official census to count the entire population of Kenya, these were problems of time, expense, the question of which season of the year, the difficulty in

obtaining enough literate staff, the number of questions needed, and the general response of the Africans themselves,bearing in mind the communication barrier and persuading them that the census was not for taxation purposes. Once the main census was carried out, it was planned that 10 % of the population would be questioned in the Sample Census, to obtain more specific information. The analysis of the Census was carried out centrally and deemed a success, considering the absence of a frame on which to base it. (The next major general Census was carried out in 1961.) After Harding’s estimate in 1897, of approximately 2.5 million, two Ugandan provinces became part of the Kenya Protectorate. After this boundary change, population was estimated as up to 4 million in 1909. The

Chief Native Commissioner, the Annual Colonial Reports and the Colonial Office List, from 1911, published annually a count of the native population. Appearing similar in number, a closer inspection would reveal irregularities on tens and sometimes hundreds of thousands. For example, in 1911, the native population count according to the 1911 Census and the Blue Book for 1911-12, was 3,000,000 and 2,648,500, respectively, a difference of 350,000 people (after an estimation of 4 million in 1909 ?!). Also, in 1920, the Chief Native Commissioner, the Annual Colonial Reports and the Colonial Office List, arrive at figures of 2,464,071; 2,330,112 and 2,483,500 respectively. Seemingly similar, there is in fact large differences. On the other hand, for 1919, the Chief Native Commissioner

and Annual Colonial Reports estimate populations of 2,684,845 and 2,684,847, respectively, a difference of 2 people. Compared to the estimated total population for Kenya Colony (the Protectorate became a Colony in 1920) in 1947 of 4,055,000 the Census total was 5,373,000 only a year later. (Martin, 1961a, p20) With an absolute difference of 1,318,000, even though the population was growing at this time, this seems a too huge growth. Perhaps a more realistic explanation is that previous figures were underestimates (not ignoring the fact that the 1948 census figure could be slightly incorrect). The basis of all the earlier counts is estimation and this is too unreliable a method to allow for any legitimate specifically numerical comments to be concluded on the extent to which

populations have risen and declined. Despite the officiality of the Census from 1948 onwards it shouldn’t be considered as totally legitimate, for exact numbers, until very much later. Taking the emphasis off the methods and exact figures for population, a closer look is needed of the events during the Colonial Period, so as to enable a clearer judgement of the impact that colonialism had on the African population. For the earlier census results in Kenya, not much can be revealed about fertility and mortality rates. (Some references were made of these factors but they are not very reliable as they differ from source to source.) However, we do have knowledge of events that occurred and can therefore legitimately assume demographic outcomes, such as famines and catastrophes, and