1972 Presidential Election Essay Research Paper The — страница 3

possibly McGovern’s inability to get his message out to the American electorate that cost him the election. A factor that may have played a larger role than policy issues or advertising in the election was the perception that the American electorate had on the leadership capabilities of each candidate. Kathleen Hall Jamieson argues that McGovern and Nixon’s campaign advertising left the American electorate with the feeling that McGovern “feels,” and “Nixon acts.” Knowing that Nixon was not seen as a warm person, Jamieson argues that McGovern tried too hard to seem compassionate, and very well may have compensated his ability to be looked at as a leader. Nixon’s ads were based on the ability of Nixon to look presidential. Ads that talked about his overseas ventures

with Russia and China, along with ads that described Nixon as inheriting a mess. The goal of the Nixon camp was to portray Nixon as the President. Another factor that has been attributed to the perception that McGovern lacked strong leadership abilities was his handling of the situation with his original running mate Thomas Eagleton. Declaring that he was behind Eagleton “1000 percent” followed by Eagleton’s removal from the ticket after discovering Eagleton had a history of mental illness were seen as undermining McGovern’s reputation as a man of candor. After four years of Nixon as President people had a good perception of the leadership capabilities of the president or the lack of, depending on opinion. But McGovern had to rely on advertising and things said and done

during the campaign, and as Jamieson argues any leadership capabilities McGovern may have had he did not show through his advertising. The Thomas Eagleton situation did not help McGovern’s cause to convince the American Electorate that he could be a trusted political leader. An issue that McGovern may have had no control of, given his strong liberal beliefs, is the possibility of a political realignment in the American electorate. One piece of evidence supporting the possibility of a political realignment is an increase in ticket splitting, voting for a republican for one office and a democrat for another. In 1948, only 38 percent of the country split their tickets, in 1960, only 34 percent split tickets, 42 percent split their tickets in 1964, in 1968, 56 percent of the

country split tickets, and in 1972, 62 percent of the country split their tickets. More impressive than the national ticket splitting is the huge change in ticket splitting that occurred in the South and in the Northeast. The South went from straight ticket voting 76 percent of the time in 1960, to only voting straight ticket 36 percent of the time in 1972. The same type of numbers can be found in the northeastern states. They went from straight ticket voting 77 percent of the time in 1960, to only splitting tickets 40 percent of the time in 1972. Both of these regions have increasingly gone the opposite way of their previous traditions as far as partisan voting is concerned. The South voted more democratic than the national democratic vote in every election between 1932 and 1960

(+19% in 1932, +15% in 1936, +18% in 1940, +16% in 1944, +3% in 1948, +7% in 1952 and 1956, and +2% in 1960). However in every election from 1964 until 1972 the South voted less democratic than the national democratic vote (-9% in 1964, -11% in 1968, and –7% in 1972). The Northeast did the exact opposite. In every election from 1932 to 1956 except 1952 the Northeast voted less democratic than the national democratic vote (-6% in 1932, -2% in 1936, -1% in 1940, -1% in 1944, -2% in 1948, +1% in 1952, and –2% in 1956). But, from 1960 to 1972 the Northeast has voted more democratic than the national democratic vote (+4% in 1960, +7% in 1964 and 1968, and +5% in 1972). Another figure that may show a possible realignment in the South is the change in partisan identification. The

South was nearly 80 percent democratic in 1936 and 1940, but slowly dropped to the lower 70 percents between 1944 and 1952, then dropped to the high 50 percents between 1956 and 1964. Then in 1972 the percent of Southerners identifying themselves with Democratic Party dropped to a 36 year low of 45 percent. There are many possible explanations for the large decrease in democratic voting in the South and the slight increase in democratic voting in the Northeast. The large civil rights movement in the South, seen as a liberal movement, may have caused many white voters to change alliances with the more conservative Republican Party. The growing urbanization of the Northeast, and the growth in minority population may have led to a somewhat stronger democratic support at the